Tuesday 25 March 2008

What are the odds?


With a week to go until the Champions League kicks off again with the Quarter-Finals, there is still nothing to talk about on the pitch.

However, there is plenty to talk about with mates, colleagues, and if you delve a little further into the murky back alleys (no, not Liverpool High Street), the bookie.

Gambling and football are obviously not a new partnership, with fans betting (and losing) for a long time now, but what about this year's Champions League? Who are the bookmakers backing, who is worth a punt, and who is not even worth a penny of your hard-earned money?

Well, a quick look at bestbetting's Champions League section unsurprisingly reveals Manchester United as the tournament's favourites at this moment in time. I say unsurprisingly because with Wayne Rooney, Carlos Tevez and the mercurial Cristiano Ronaldo leading their attack, not even the great wall of China could stop the 3/1 tip from scoring.

It appears as though the competition is theirs for the taking, but just in case Rooney, Tevez and Ronaldo all get injured at the same time, United throw a wobbly because it's "Squeaky Bum Time", or the Portuguese winger does his favourite trick of disappearing during the 'big' games, both Barcelona and Chelsea are waiting in the wings as the joint second favourites.

Barca were the pundits' tip before the competition started, boasting names like Messi, Henry, Xavi, Eto'o, Deco and Ronaldinho (when he was good mind) but with the Catalan giants form in La Liga showing they are far from impregnable, they have had to take a back seat in the betting.

Chelsea meanwhile have reached three semi-finals in four years, which says to me they are the bridesmaids of the competition. Avram Grant, aiming to make them a bride (lucky Chelsea), may have to play the attacking football he promised after usurping Jose Mourinho as manager if he is to guide his side to European glory, and save his own neck from Roman Abramovich's guillotine in the process.

Arsenal and Liverpool are next favourites with both clubs available at around 6/1 and 7/1. With the two English sides facing each other, one front runner will be eliminated from the betting after the two legs, but with the Gunners crumbling after Eduardo's horror injury a month ago resulting in no win in five for Arsene Wenger, Liverpool may be the better bet.

As we all know, they defy the odds in Europe as they seem to have some sort of magnetic pull towards the trophy. Even Rafa Benitez can't mess it up, although he will no doubt try, so don't be surprised if Moscow experiences a Scouse invasion come May.

Roma are third last in the betting stakes despite sitting in second in Serie A. They are unfortunate as they drew favourites Manchester United in the Quarters, and as they lost 7-1 last season at Old Trafford, few are expecting them to change their fortune this time around.

And so we come to the underdogs. Both Schalke 04 and Fenerbahce snuck through on penalties and with their odds stacked well into double figures, a bet on either side makes about as much sense as a Brazilian commentator. None at all!

So the smart money is on Manchester United, although they haven't reached a European final since 1999. There could be a few shocks and surprises, but one thing's for certain: there will be a lot of fans money lost between now and May.

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